Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 2.241783 3.018432 4.100896 5.768609 8.366252e+00 1.242947e+01 1.964673e+01
2025-04-20 1.457478 2.240091 3.542061 6.026925 1.108810e+01 2.215248e+01 5.294520e+01
2025-04-27 1.070696 1.839144 3.331326 6.817317 1.620325e+01 4.670387e+01 2.091269e+02
2025-05-04 0.822293 1.555544 3.192032 7.842236 2.473204e+01 1.149758e+02 1.571353e+03
2025-05-11 0.622978 1.272727 2.899062 8.390985 3.512113e+01 2.920845e+02 4.005978e+04
2025-05-18 0.458469 0.989675 2.436287 8.022892 4.294867e+01 6.658004e+02 3.040483e+09
2025-05-25 0.338624 0.761414 1.988573 7.257379 4.807107e+01 1.448919e+03 NaN
2025-06-01 0.277214 0.655968 1.848492 7.746151 7.024264e+01 7.952143e+03 NaN
2025-06-08 0.229668 0.568105 1.713527 8.176725 1.030773e+02 1.163467e+05 NaN
2025-06-15 0.196171 0.506884 1.637627 8.969577 1.676401e+02 1.911996e+11 NaN
2025-06-22 0.168427 0.451976 1.552264 9.668774 2.745457e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.140406 0.385618 1.375919 9.315974 3.583766e+02 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.114768 0.320465 1.175453 8.466457 4.160053e+02 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.100187 0.288191 1.111636 8.994268 7.395726e+02 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.090616 0.270138 1.108421 10.413648 1.904592e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.082780 0.255574 1.115749 12.275936 6.748156e+03 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.074167 0.234847 1.073221 13.339984 2.321817e+04 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.064534 0.206837 0.966421 12.768241 4.664972e+04 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 0.055610 0.179174 0.845307 11.473798 6.129834e+04 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 0.050745 0.166915 0.818310 12.393801 5.345334e+05 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 0.046362 0.155315 0.788151 13.215908 3.251848e+07 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 0.042996 0.147075 0.776640 14.709670 NaN NaN NaN
2025-09-14 0.039819 0.138693 0.758422 16.050463 NaN NaN NaN